Track record · Sports

Sports arbitrage results — settled positions

54 sports positions recommended by PROVISUM and since resolved by Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless and Predict.fun, with both legs, the resolved outcome and the realised result per $1,000.

54
Sports positions recommended & settled
−11.78%
Average per position
−$6,363
Combined, per $1,000 each

How a cross-venue hedge works

Two venues price the same event independently. When they disagree far enough, you buy YES on one and NO on the other for a combined cost under $1.00. If both venues settle the question the same way, exactly one leg pays $1.00 whichever way the world goes, and the profit is locked in the moment both legs are bought.

Every position below actually closed and was resolved by the venues themselves - settled outcomes, not projections or simulations. Figures are stated per $1,000 committed, net of fees. Of 283 recommended positions, 259 held and 24 broke; the total above includes both.

A hedge breaks when the two markets turn out not to be the same event, or when the two venues resolve the same fact from different sources — then both legs can lose. The matching engine flags every cause we have identified, but broken hedges have continued to occur. That is why the board's default view shows only locked-in pairs (low match risk at entry): 398 of 400 have held so far. That is a track record, not a guarantee. Past resolutions do not predict future ones, and nothing here is financial advice.

Sports positions

Will Vanessa Demopoulos win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.080 Will Vanessa Demopoulos win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.880 Fight Night: Demopoulos vs Jauregui — Vanessa Demopoulos resolved NO
hedge held
+$31
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-26
locked-in · low match risk

Will Robelis Despaigne win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.760 Will Robelis Despaigne win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.200 331: Tuivasa vs Despaigne — Robelis Despaigne resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-19
locked-in · low match risk

Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.160 Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.810 331: Tuivasa vs Despaigne — Tai Tuivasa resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-19
locked-in · low match risk

Will Gable Steveson win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.790 Will Gable Steveson win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.080 331: Steveson vs Sharaf — Gable Steveson resolved NO
hedge held
+$136
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-19

Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.210 Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.730 331: Tsarukyan vs Ruffy — Mauricio Ruffy resolved NO
hedge held
+$42
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-19

Will Alonzo Menifield win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.220 Will Alonzo Menifield win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.690 331: Menifield vs Baraniewski — Alonzo Menifield resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-18

Fight to Go the Distance?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.240 Fight Night: Klose vs Gantt — Drakkar Klose resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.730 Fight to Go the Distance? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-11

Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.130 Spanish Grand Prix Winner — George Russell resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.850 Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-09
locked-in · low match risk

Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.040 BLAST Open Porto Champion — MOUZ resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.940 Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-06
locked-in · low match risk

Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.830 BLAST Open Porto Champion — Spirit resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.130 Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved YES
hedge held
+$31
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-06
locked-in · low match risk

Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.010 Italian Grand Prix Winner — Lando Norris resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.940 Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? resolved NO
hedge held
+$42
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-06

Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.010 Italian Grand Prix Winner — Lewis Hamilton resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.960 Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? resolved NO
hedge held
+$20
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-06

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.260 Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? resolved YES
  • KALSHI NO at $0.600 Fight Night: Ziam vs Sola — Axel Sola resolved YES
hedge held
+$136
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-05
locked-in · low match risk

Will Punahele Soriano win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.170 Will Punahele Soriano win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.690 Fight Night: Donchenko vs Soriano — Punahele Soriano resolved NO
hedge held
+$136
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-05

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.700 Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? resolved YES
  • KALSHI NO at $0.200 Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse — Salahdine Parnasse resolved YES
hedge held
+$87
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-05

Will Vitality Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.300 BLAST Open Porto Champion — Vitality resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.670 Will Vitality Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-05
locked-in · low match risk

Will Pavel Andrusca win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.180 Will Pavel Andrusca win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.720 Fight Night: Wood vs Andrusca — Pavel Andrusca resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-05

Will Trevor Peek win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.150 Will Trevor Peek win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.770 Fight Night: Campbell vs Peek — Trevor Peek resolved NO
hedge held
+$64
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-05
locked-in · low match risk

Will Delphine Benouaich win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.470 Will Delphine Benouaich win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.430 Fight Night: Benouaich vs Montenegro — Delphine Benouaich resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-04

Will FURIA Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.050 BLAST Open Porto Champion — FURIA resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.930 Will FURIA Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-03
locked-in · low match risk

Fight to Go the Distance?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.430 Fight Night: Ziam vs Sola — Axel Sola resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.490 Fight to Go the Distance? resolved NO
paid more than designed
+$1,128
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-03

Will Michael Page win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.500 Will Michael Page win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.420 Fight Night: Page vs Ruziboev — Michael Page resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-02

Will Michael Aljarouj win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.500 Will Michael Aljarouj win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.450 Fight Night: Aljarouj vs Sintes — Michael Aljarouj resolved NO
hedge held
+$31
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-02
locked-in · low match risk

Will G2 Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.040 BLAST Open Porto Champion — G2 resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.946 Will G2 Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$4
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-01
locked-in · low match risk

Will Falcons Make the Grand Finals at BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.170 BLAST Open Porto Champion — Team Falcons resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.770 Will Falcons Make the Grand Finals at BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$53
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-01

Will Falcons Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.150 BLAST Open Porto Champion — Team Falcons resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.830 Will Falcons Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-01

Will FUT Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.020 BLAST Open Porto Champion — FUT Esports resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.967 Will FUT Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$3
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-31

Will Legacy Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.020 BLAST Open Porto Champion — Legacy resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.966 Will Legacy Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026? resolved NO
hedge held
+$4
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-30
locked-in · low match risk

Fight to Go the Distance?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.350 Fight Night: Perez vs Mudaerji — Alex Perez resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.600 Fight to Go the Distance? resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-28

Fight to Go the Distance?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.300 Fight Night: Batbayar vs Lima — Namsrai Batbayar resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.640 Fight to Go the Distance? resolved NO
hedge held
+$42
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-28
locked-in · low match risk

Will Anthony Wint win by KO or TKO?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.770 Will Anthony Wint win by KO or TKO? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.110 Fight Night: Wint vs Chatman — Anthony Wint resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-22

Will MOUZ Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.980 BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals Champion — MOUZ resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.001 Will MOUZ Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2? resolved YES
hedge held
+$9
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-02

Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.280 BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals Champion — Spirit resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.690 Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-02

Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.010 Hungarian Grand Prix Winner — Charles Leclerc resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.976 Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? resolved NO
hedge held
+$4
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-26

Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.120 Fair Play Award Winner — Spain resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.863 Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$7
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.770 Fair Play Award Winner — Norway resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.205 Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$5
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Argentina win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.050 Fair Play Award Winner — Argentina resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.934 Will Argentina win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$6
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Argentina win the World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.430 Will Argentina win the World Cup? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.430 Argentina: Stage of Elimination — Runner-Up resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.430 Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved YES
  • KALSHI NO at $0.520 Kylian Mbappe: Total Goals — 9+ goals resolved YES
hedge held
+$31
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.100 Lionel Messi: Total Goals — 10+ goals resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.888 Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$2
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.897 Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.090 Golden Ball Winner — Lionel Messi resolved NO
hedge held
+$3
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.098 Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved YES
  • KALSHI NO at $0.870 Golden Ball Winner — Rodri resolved YES
hedge held
+$22
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will the announcers say "VAR" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.950 Will the announcers say "VAR" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? resolved YES
  • KALSHI NO at $0.010 What will the announcers say during England vs Argentina — VAR resolved YES
hedge held
+$31
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.040 Golden Ball Winner — Harry Kane resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.920 Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$31
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.030 Golden Ball Winner — Lamine Yamal resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.959 Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.850 Continent to Win the Men's World Cup — Europe resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.100 Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved YES
hedge held
+$42
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.620 Argentina: Stage of Elimination — Semifinals resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.247 Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$127
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.080 Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.890 Continent to Win the Men's World Cup — South America resolved NO
hedge held
+$20
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.221 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.686 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner — England resolved NO
hedge held
+$79
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.160 Argentina: Stage of Elimination — Runner-Up resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.737 Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? resolved YES
hedge held
+$103
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.297 Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.680 Golden Ball Winner — Jude Bellingham resolved NO
hedge held
+$3
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Spain win the World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.430 Spain: Stage of Elimination — Runner-Up resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.430 Will Spain win the World Cup? resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-15

Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.080 Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? resolved YES
  • KALSHI NO at $0.880 Kylian Mbappe: Total Goals — 10+ goals resolved YES
hedge held
+$31
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-14

Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.040 Spain: Stage of Elimination — Semifinals resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.940 Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-14

Other subjects

← All settled results · How cross-venue arbitrage works