How a cross-venue hedge works
Two venues price the same event independently. When they disagree far enough, you buy YES on one and NO on the other for a combined cost under $1.00. If both venues settle the question the same way, exactly one leg pays $1.00 whichever way the world goes, and the profit is locked in the moment both legs are bought.
Every position below actually closed and was resolved by the venues themselves - settled outcomes, not projections or simulations. Figures are stated per $1,000 committed, net of fees. Of 283 recommended positions, 259 held and 24 broke; the total above includes both.
A hedge breaks when the two markets turn out not to be the same event, or when the two venues resolve the same fact from different sources — then both legs can lose. The matching engine flags every cause we have identified, but broken hedges have continued to occur. That is why the board's default view shows only locked-in pairs (low match risk at entry): 398 of 400 have held so far. That is a track record, not a guarantee. Past resolutions do not predict future ones, and nothing here is financial advice.
