Track record · Entertainment

Entertainment arbitrage results — settled positions

30 entertainment positions recommended by PROVISUM and since resolved by Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless and Predict.fun, with both legs, the resolved outcome and the realised result per $1,000.

30
Entertainment positions recommended & settled
−2.55%
Average per position
−$766
Combined, per $1,000 each

How a cross-venue hedge works

Two venues price the same event independently. When they disagree far enough, you buy YES on one and NO on the other for a combined cost under $1.00. If both venues settle the question the same way, exactly one leg pays $1.00 whichever way the world goes, and the profit is locked in the moment both legs are bought.

Every position below actually closed and was resolved by the venues themselves - settled outcomes, not projections or simulations. Figures are stated per $1,000 committed, net of fees. Of 283 recommended positions, 259 held and 24 broke; the total above includes both.

A hedge breaks when the two markets turn out not to be the same event, or when the two venues resolve the same fact from different sources — then both legs can lose. The matching engine flags every cause we have identified, but broken hedges have continued to occur. That is why the board's default view shows only locked-in pairs (low match risk at entry): 398 of 400 have held so far. That is a track record, not a guarantee. Past resolutions do not predict future ones, and nothing here is financial advice.

Entertainment positions

Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.670 Emmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series — The Late Show with Stephen Colbert resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.300 Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? resolved YES
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-14
locked-in · low match risk

Will “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.090 Emmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series — Jimmy Kimmel Live! resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.897 Will “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? resolved NO
hedge held
+$3
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-14
locked-in · low match risk

Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.020 Emmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series — Last Week Tonight with John Oliver resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.967 Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? resolved NO
hedge held
+$3
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-14
locked-in · low match risk

Will “The Daily Show” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.010 Emmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series — The Daily Show resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.967 Will “The Daily Show” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? resolved NO
hedge held
+$13
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-14
locked-in · low match risk

Will “Saturday Night Live” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.010 Emmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series — Saturday Night Live resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.979 Will “Saturday Night Live” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? resolved NO
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-14
locked-in · low match risk

Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.140 Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series — Keri Russell resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.839 Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series? resolved NO
hedge held
+$11
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-10

Will Noah Wyle – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.940 Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series — Noah Wyle resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.049 Will Noah Wyle – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series? resolved YES
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-09

Will “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.940 Emmy Winner: Outstanding Drama Series — The Pitt resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.047 Will “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series? resolved YES
hedge held
+$3
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-08

Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.929 Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series? resolved YES
  • KALSHI NO at $0.060 Emmy winner: Outstanding Reality Competition Program — The Traitors resolved YES
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-07
locked-in · low match risk

Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.970 Emmy winner: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series — Ernest Harden, Jr. resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.006 Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? resolved YES
hedge held
+$14
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-07
locked-in · low match risk

Will Jean Smart – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.910 Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series — Jean Smart resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.078 Will Jean Smart – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series? resolved YES
hedge held
+$2
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-05

Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.290 Emmy winner: Outstanding Guest Actress In A Comedy Series — Kaitlin Olson resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.686 Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? resolved NO
hedge held
+$4
per $1,000 · settled 2026-09-04
locked-in · low match risk

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Estoril Praia - Halftime Result

  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.310 Sport Lisboa e Benfica leading at halftime? resolved YES
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.750 Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Estoril Praia: Draw at halftime? resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.930 Estoril Praia leading at halftime? resolved NO
hedge held
+$5
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-31
locked-in · low match risk

Ulsan HD FC leading at halftime?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.350 Ulsan HD FC leading at halftime? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.600 Ulsan HD vs FC Anyang: First Half Winner — Tie 1st Half resolved YES
hedge broke
−$1,000
per $1,000 · settled 2026-08-02

Will Ben Kohles win the 2026 3M Open?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.130 3M Open Winner — Ben Kohles resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.820 Will Ben Kohles win the 2026 3M Open? resolved NO
hedge held
+$42
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-25

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 3M Open?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.079 Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 3M Open? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.860 3M Open Winner — Scottie Scheffler resolved NO
hedge held
+$54
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-25

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 3M Open?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.070 Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 3M Open? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.919 3M Open Winner — Hideki Matsuyama resolved NO
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-25

Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.025 Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.964 The Open Championship Winner — Jackson Suber resolved NO
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.048 Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.940 The Open Championship Winner — Collin Morikawa resolved NO
hedge held
+$2
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.017 Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.971 The Open Championship Winner — Matt Fitzpatrick resolved NO
hedge held
+$2
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • POLYMARKET YES at $0.037 Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
  • KALSHI NO at $0.944 The Open Championship Winner — Xander Schauffele resolved NO
hedge held
+$9
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.038 The Open Championship Winner — Rory McIlroy resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.940 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$12
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Cameron Young win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.022 The Open Championship Winner — Cameron Young resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.967 Will Cameron Young win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.018 The Open Championship Winner — Wyndham Clark resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.971 Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.130 The Open Championship Winner — Scottie Scheffler resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.850 Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.022 The Open Championship Winner — Jon Rahm resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.961 Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$7
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Justin Rose win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.005 The Open Championship Winner — Justin Rose resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.982 Will Justin Rose win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$3
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.040 The Open Championship Winner — Tommy Fleetwood resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.940 Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$10
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.026 The Open Championship Winner — Bryson DeChambeau resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.963 Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$1
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 The Open Championship?

  • KALSHI YES at $0.032 The Open Championship Winner — Viktor Hovland resolved NO
  • POLYMARKET NO at $0.951 Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 The Open Championship? resolved NO
hedge held
+$7
per $1,000 · settled 2026-07-16

Other subjects

← All settled results · How cross-venue arbitrage works