Real settled results from cross-venue prediction-market hedges recommended by PROVISUM and resolved by Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt and Limitless — the exact markets, both legs, what each venue resolved, and what each position returned per $1,000. Backtested on outcomes the venues published themselves, not simulations.
Two venues price the same event independently. When they disagree far enough, you buy YES on one and NO on the other for a combined cost under $1.00 - and exactly one of those legs pays out $1.00 whichever way the world goes. The position is not a directional bet and does not depend on predicting the outcome. The only question is how much it returns after each venue's fees.
Every position below actually closed and was resolved by the venues themselves - settled outcomes, not projections or simulations. Figures are stated per $1,000 committed, net of fees. Backtested across 88 recommended positions, the hedge paid out as designed on 74 of them, returning +2.24% each on average.
The remaining 14 did not behave as hedges: in those cases the two markets turned out not to be the same event, or the two venues resolved the same fact from different sources. That is a matching problem rather than a hedging one, and each identified cause is now blocked by a guard in the matching engine. Past resolutions do not predict future ones, and nothing here is financial advice.
The strongest of the 74 positions where the hedge paid out, per $1,000 committed.
The most recent of 74 recommended positions that resolved as designed, from 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-16. Both legs, both prices, and what each venue resolved.
Want the positions that are still open? Those are the live board — PROVISUM Pro — and they are the only part we charge for. Everything on this page has already resolved. How cross-venue arbitrage works →