Frequently asked questions
Everything about how the edges work, what the numbers mean, and where the risks are.
It's when the same real-world question trades on two venues at prices that, combined, cost less than the $1.00 one side will pay out. Buy YES on the cheaper venue and NO on the other; exactly one resolves true, so you collect $1.00 for less than $1.00 — the difference is your modeled edge, assuming both markets resolve on identical terms.
The spread is the modeled edge (before slippage) as a fraction of the $1.00 payout, after fees. A 6% spread means you pay about $0.94 (fees included) to collect $1.00. ROI is that edge as a fraction of what you staked, which is slightly higher.
It is 100% live. PROVISUM crawls Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Smarkets and Limitless directly on a 10-minute schedule. Nothing on the platform is mocked. That said, prices are snapshots taken on an interval and can differ from what a venue shows at the exact moment you look — always confirm live before trading.
Because the headline spread is top-of-book. The verification tool walks the real order book for your size; if there are only a few contracts at the best price, your average fill is worse and the edge shrinks. This is a feature — it stops you acting on mirages.
Free users see signals with a spread under 0.5% in full, plus live stats and recent finds. The higher-value signals are shown blurred with a live count, so you can see the engine works. Pro unlocks every signal, the exact legs, and verification.
Sometimes not as one person. Kalshi and PredictIt are US-only, Smarkets is UK/EU, and Polymarket restricts US persons. Eligibility and KYC vary by venue and jurisdiction — that's part of the due diligence PROVISUM expects you to do.
Kalshi's per-contract taker fee, PredictIt's 10% profit fee, and Smarkets' 2% commission are all built into the displayed spread. Polymarket is modelled fee-free unless a market says otherwise. Withdrawal fees and capital lock-up are not modelled — factor those in yourself.
The crawl runs every 10 minutes. Freshly-detected signals are highlighted so you can see what just arrived. The board also updates continuously as prices move and opportunities close.
No. PROVISUM is a scanner and analytics tool only. It never places orders, connects to your exchange accounts, or holds funds. You execute every trade yourself, at your own discretion and risk.
No — that is the tool being honest. "Price arb" means the edge exists at the best quoted prices. A confirmed arb also needs enough contracts actually available at those prices on both venues. Some venues (PredictIt, Smarkets) do not publish order-book depth, so we can price the top of book but cannot prove your size will fill — the verdict then reads "top-of-book only, depth unverified" and marks it not-yet-confirmed. The edge on price may be real; what is unproven is whether you can execute it at size.
It means the two venues in that signal cannot both be traded by one person: one is US-only (Kalshi, PredictIt) and the other excludes US persons (Polymarket) or is UK/EU (Smarkets), so you would need accounts in two jurisdictions. Use the "I can trade" filter at the top of the terminal — set it to "US venues only" or "Non-US" — to hide the ones you cannot execute and see only your tradeable set.
Modeled floor is the worst-case profit if both markets resolve on identical rules — before slippage, and only if they truly match. The T-bill line compares the annualized return to a risk-free Treasury bill, because your capital is locked until the market resolves (often years for election markets). Reality check shows the worst-case after tax: on a two-venue hedge you may owe tax on the winning leg without being able to deduct the losing one, which can turn a thin edge negative. Together they show the honest picture, not just the headline spread.
Yes. Pro is month-to-month with no lock-in. Cancel from your account page and you keep access until the end of the period you've paid for.
The FAQ above covers the most common questions, and billing is fully self-serve from your account page (subscribe, cancel, no lock-in). A direct support mailbox is on the way.