Markets arbitrage results — settled positions

How a cross-venue hedge works

Two venues price the same event independently. When they disagree far enough, you buy YES on one and NO on the other for a combined cost under $1.00 - and exactly one of those legs pays out $1.00 whichever way the world goes. The position is not a directional bet and does not depend on predicting the outcome. The only question is how much it returns after each venue's fees.

Every position below actually closed and was resolved by the venues themselves - settled outcomes, not projections or simulations. Figures are stated per $1,000 committed, net of fees. Backtested across 89 recommended positions, the hedge paid out as designed on 75 of them, returning +2.28% each on average.

The remaining 14 did not behave as hedges: in those cases the two markets turned out not to be the same event, or the two venues resolved the same fact from different sources. That is a matching problem rather than a hedging one, and each identified cause is now blocked by a guard in the matching engine. Past resolutions do not predict future ones, and nothing here is financial advice.